This post will be a little outside my usual repertoire. For those of you who don’t know, my other RPG of choice besides a mishmash of OSR titles (and whatever home-brew I happen to be toting around at the time) is Delta Green. The Handler’s Guide has a monster manual of sorts and in the interest of laying bare the mechanical underpinnings of games, I now tackle the average damage outputs.
But before I get to the actual “math,” I need to decide how I’m going to deal with the Lethality mechanic. It’s a common feature among unnatural beasties but the trick is that it doesn’t deal HP damage like everything else. It just reduces your HP to zero, ignoring armor, basically killing you. Even the one spell in the game that might complicate this with magical armor doesn’t. If you have a single point of Armor from Exaltation of the Flesh, you’re immune to successful Lethality rolls, taking normal HP damage. However, there is a handy part of the rule: successful Lethality rolls ignore Armor. So rather than treating it as infinite damage, I can instead treat it as 18 damage, enough to kill even the toughest Agent from full health. A quick glance at the back of the Handler’s Guide also shows that this still roughly works for all mundane creatures that still interact with this part of the Lethality mechanic. The others that have significantly more than 18 HP take flat damage to the Lethality rating, thus sidestepping the problem.
The fact that successful Lethality rolls ignore body armor can be represented by thinking that these average damage values have a Lethality% chance to ignore body armor. Or on the scale of averages, only (100-Lethality)% of your body armor actually applies.
However, Lethality doesn’t always ignore Armor. If you have Cover, which also gives you Armor, the Lethality roll automatically fails and deals normal HP damage. So wherever it’s appropriate, I’ll be splitting the average damage of Lethality attacks into “against Cover” and “not against Cover.” Other relevant considerations like Armor Piercing and whether or not the attack should be able to used to Fight Back will also be notated. I’ll also be including Lethality ratings to put perspective on things.
Agents read no further I guess?
Color Out of Space
This one isn’t applicable, as it doesn’t actually inflict HP damage on the Agents. The worst it can do is knock you out and siphon away a point of POW (still pretty nasty, though). Interestingly enough, the CoC version of this monster drains points from the other stats as well and also inflicts 1D6 damage.
Deep One (Greater)
Talons: 3.85 (5 AP, Fights Back)
Bite: 3.97 (5 AP, 10% Lethality, Fights Back)
Now what’s interesting to note here, is that if you analyze the Bite attack as “against Cover,” it actually has the same average amount of damage as the Talons. The higher damage from the Lethality damage is counterbalanced by the lower chance to hit. This is a good mechanic. It also hints at a strategy that the Deep One might employ, given how attacks against pinned targets are at a +20% to hit. They pin the target, and can now bite them for the same chance as if they slashed at them with their talons.
Deep One (Lesser)
Talons: 2.48 (3 AP, Fights Back)
The choice of 3 AP is an interesting design decision because while it completely negates a Kelvar vest, it still allows for some protection from reinforced Kevlar vests or full-on body armor. I think that sort of balance is neat. I personally use this statblock for Deep One hybrids who don't "trim their nails" that often and the Greater Deep Ones as full-on fish people or hybrids who have completed their transformation.
Dimensional Shambler
Flailing: 3.85 (Fights Back, 22% chance to knock down the average Agent)
This doesn’t look too bad, but the 2D6 damage will Stun the average Agent if it hits (probably knocking them prone) on average and then they have to make a STR save to not be knocked prone. Being prone is bad because then the Shambler can instakill you with its teleportation ability. You are also extremely unlikely to escape from its grip, the strongest Agent alive with STR 18 has a ~28% chance to break free (the average Agent only ~12%). The saving grace is that Agents can roll Dodge (apparently unopposed) to roll out of the way as the Shambler pounces on them and it is extremely distracted by blood. It's Blood Feast ability also reduces STR, which, while nasty, isn't quite as bad as dealing damage. A lone Agent trying to escape a shambler's grip will lose an average of ~8 STR before escaping, while one with 18 STR would only lose ~4 points. Overall, a decently designed monster with interesting tactics so long as the Handler doesn't run it as a mastermind, using every mechanical trick at its disposal to wipe the party.
Elder Thing
Grasp: 5.1 (10% Lethality, Fights Back)
Box: 7.23, 5.5 against Cover (40% Lethality)
Injector: 1.93 (probably ignores armor, can also just knock you out instantly)
The most deadly feature of the Elder Thing is its Black Box, 40% Lethality on its own is very nasty, and they have a decent chance to hit as well. Fortunately, a Dodge roll is permitted, greatly increasing an Agent's chances of survival. An RPG is technically more dangerous, as this attack lacks AP. If the Elder Thing decides to erect a shield around itself, the only man-portable thing that's liable to hurt them is an RPG. The injector can deal HP damage, but it's much better used for subduing Agents. The 2D10 WP drain has a 45% chance of incapacitating an average Agent, but they can also just knock you out for 1D10 hours anyway, so I'm not sure why they'd bother with the former. Maybe they can store the WP in the wand for later use? Though, the Elder Things never really struck me as creatures to deal in spells.
Feaster from the Stars
Exsanguination: the average Agent has an ~31% chance to escape each round, at most, ~54% with 18 STR
Flail: 3.9 (Fights Back, I guess?)
The average Agent will escape from its grip in 3-4 turns, meaning on average, they will have taken 6 to 10 damage (average of 6.6), more than enough to seriously injure the average Agent with 12 HP. The strongest Agent will escape from its grip in ~2 turns on average, having taken ~3.7 damage. This assumes the attack hits, which it might not, given that it only has a 40% chance to hit and with only 17 STR, an Agent could reasonably Fight Back to defend against it.
If I can get Excel to cooperate, I might make a post about the chances of opposed rolls sometime in the future. EDIT: I did! Here it is.
Ghoul
Claws: 1.8 (3 AP, Fights Back)
Bite: 3 (Fights Back? followup auto 3.5 damage that will most likely ignore Armor)
This has some interesting implications. The Ghoul is much better off using their Bite attack. Sure, it doesn’t have AP, but even if the Agent is armored up in full battle rattle (6 Armor), the Ghoul still has a 60% of ignoring all of it next turn. The other damning factor is that once the Ghoul has latched on to someone, they can still take other actions while munching away on them. Even ignoring that, against 6 Armor, Claws do an average of 1.875 damage while Bite does 2.1 damage. My take on this is that either a Ghoul should have to choose between inflicting an automatic 1D6 damage on Bitten targets or taking an action or alternatively, their bite attack does not Fight Back against anyone but their target.
The Great Race (Cone-Shaped Vessel)
Claw: 9.36-11.86 (5 AP, 20% Lethality)
Nothing much to see here, except to note that the Yith have an effective 85% in all skills. And apparently it can vary from 75% to 95% against individual targets? Bleagh. I’ve got more to say about that but this isn’t the place for it and we’d be here all night. I do find it odd they're not listed as having camera-like electrical weapons, as that's the way they initially put down the polyps.
The Great Race (Human Vessels)
Zap: 2.63-3.3 (ignores body armor)
Zappier: 5.25-6.65 (ignores body armor)
Zappiest: 9.03-11.44 (Lethality 15%, ignores body armor)
The big problem with this suite of attacks is that there is no guidance given on what "level" they set their Lightning Guns at. Ignoring body armor but not cover is neat, it's dangerous, but not overwhelmingly so. It also makes sense for a weapon that uses electricity to kill its targets.
Greys
Pinch: 0.38 (Fights Back, I guess?)
They do have decent chances to basically immobilize you or wipe your memory.
Haedus Nigritia
Trample: 1.4 to 8.4 (Fights Back, can target between 1 and 6 opponents)
Feed: 5.6 (probably Fights Back, reduces STR)
The Feeding attack is a special case because it inflicts damage on the next turn. Additionally, because it reduces STR and not HP, you could argue it only does 2.8 damage. The STR loss is debilitating, but there's nothing that says it's permanent. It's also one of the few monsters that has a defense against being ganged up on.
Hounds of the Angles
Sweep: 4.55 (Fights Back? Ignores body armor)
Swarm: 7.94, 7.7 against Cover (Fights Back? Lethality 10%, ignores body armor)
This is an interesting case because one of its attacks is straight up better than the other. And unlike the Ghoul, it’s obviously better than the other. My thoughts on this echo the thoughts of a user on the Night at the Opera Discord server, Thomas “BurningHeron” DiPaulo: The Hound uses its Swarm attack on its main target and the Sweep against anything else that gets in its way.
Hunting-Horror
Bite: 9.46 (5 AP, Lethality 30%)
Seize: ~7.82 (ignores Armor)
The listed damage for Seize isn’t a perfect representation because it applies on the turn afterwards if successful and requires a successful opposed roll. Against an average Agent, the roll has a ~71% chance of success, but they also have a ~27% chance to escape each turn. That chance is raised to ~49% against the strongest Agents with 18 STR who only have a ~49% chance to take damage (lowering the average damage to 5.4).
Ifrit
Touch: 1.35 (maybe Fights Back, damage over time)
Immersion: 6.24, 5.5 against Cover (Fights Back, Lethality 20%)
The rest of these numbers have all been slightly lower than they actually should be because I have been neglecting to calculate the influence of critical hits (though I've also ignored fumbles). However, the Ifrit’s attacks don’t deal double damage on a critical hit, only 80% more damage.
Insect From Shaggai
Bite: 1
Flight: 35% chance of possession against an Agent with base Dodge (and then they get a roll to resist)
Interestingly, this version of the Shan phases through all matter. In Countdown, they were described as creating their ships out of mostly metal with organic sections that they could phase through. Of course, this would mean that the Agents could easily just shoot the little bugs to death with their metallic bullets, so it's not the worst thing in the world. Additionally, whoever wrote this statblock seems to have forgotten that the Surgery skill exists, as it lists Medicine as the appropriate skill for trepanation.
K’n-Yani
Ceremonial Knife: 3.5 (Fights Back)
Projection: 1.93 (costs WP)
Unarmed: 2.48 (Fights Back)
The Ceremonial Knife attack is taken from Sentinels of Twilight. Due to the fact that it is straight up better than an Unarmed attack, I’d lower their “Melee Weapons skill” to 35%. This results in 2.45 average damage, but it’s more reliable due to having a Gaussian distribution.
Liveliest Awfulness
Grapple: 3.85 (Fights Back)
The damage doesn't look like much, but it does restore HP on a 1-to-1 basis to a monster that's already taking half damage from almost everything.
Lloigor
Surgery: 0.9 to 4.95 (can chop off anything from a finger to an internal organ or limb)
Vortex: 15.3 (ignores Armor, takes 1D4 turns to build up)
On top of this, this monster has a long laundry list of abilities that are more likely to kill you, like forcing you to commit suicide or unleashing human enemies with 1.8 average unarmed damage per round. It can also impose -20% penalties on you. Despite my best efforts, this analysis does not capture its threat level. Like the Dimensional Shambler, it is also a monster I would advise not using every ability to its fullest extent.
Lloigor-Controlled Quasi-Dinosaurian Construct
Talons: 8.74, 7.7 against Cover (5 AP, Lethality 20%, Fights Back)
Bite: 6.76 (10 AP, Lethality 30%, Fights Back?)
These are some neat stats for a dinosaur. I especially like the Tail Sweep ability.
Metoh-Kangmi
De-oxygenator: 0.8 (but followup auto 2 damage on average after a hit)
Kick: 1.8 (Fights Back)
Tendrils: 1.4 (Fights Back, I guess?)
Mi-Go
Wand: 6.12, 6.05 against Cover (Lethality 2%)
Wander: 6.62, 6.05 against Cover (Lethality 15%)
Wandiest: 7.22, 6.05 against Cover (Lethality 25%)
Scalpel: 6.24 (5 AP, Lethality 10%, Fights Back)
Gravity: 9.07 (ignores Armor, Lethality 65%)
Here we have the same problem with the wands as we did with the Yithians. Fortunately, the Fungi from Yuggoth have thought processes so alien to ours that a Handler can easily justify rolling 1D3 to determine which setting they use*. Interestingly, the Mi-Go wand is theoretically weaker than a Yithian agent's Lightning Gun, as it does not ignore body armor. Which is strange, as the Mi-Go not only are smarter (INT 25 vs 20), but they also presumably have access to a full workshop rather than cobbling together a weapon out of spare parts. Maybe they just invested all the R&D into pumping up the maximum setting to 25% Lethality and raising the base damage.
*If you want to get even noodlier, you can let the attack roll determine which one they use. If the units place is 1-3, they use the lowest setting, 4-6 and they use the medium setting, 7-9 and they use the highest setting. If the units place is 0, then they either try to use their scalpel or just choose not to attack you for some weird reason.
Serpent-Folk
Bite: 1.93 (3 AP, Fights Back, inflicts Lethality 15% Venom afterwards)
Grapple: 0.45 (1 auto damage every turn afterwards on hit, 2.5 as a parting shot)
Sign: 7 (automatic, no cost or anything)
For reference, for an average Agent, the venom deals 9.07 damage on average, assuming the Lethality roll fails. If a lone bleeding Agent is trying to escape the blood-feast, they have a ~24% chance to escape each turn, meaning they will escape having lost ~6.75 HP on average. Given that the Agent is probably bleeding after taking damage from a previous attack, escaping will likely stun them from hit point loss. An Agent with 18 STR has a ~45% chance to escape each round, letting the escape only having lost ~4.7 HP on average. This is only likely to stun them from hit point loss if they were already at 7 HP before getting blood-feasted. It may not look it, but the snake people actually rival the shoggoth in terms of danger. The reason for this is their Sign of Power ability. Dealing 2D6 damage is nothing to sniff at and it doesn't require a skill roll to activate. I have a few gripes with the shoggoth's defensive abilities, but they are nothing compared to the distaste I have for this particular mechanic.
EDIT: This has been changed! I have no idea why, but in the second errata for Delta Green, Sign of Power now costs 6 WP. This is still more efficient than anything human magic will produce; according to the Ritual Cost Table, spells do 1 point of damage for every 2 WP on average. However, Withering is technically more cost efficient, with a 1:0.7 ratio instead of the Sign's 1:1.16667. Either way, with 20 WP, a snake is likely to stun three Agents or stun one and kill another over the course of three rounds.
Shoggoth
Grapple: 6.62 (ignores Armor, Lethality 15%, Fights Back, followup 4.5 damage per turn for an average duration of 1 turn)
6.05 against Cover (ignores Armor, Lethality 25%)
Smash: 4.73 (Lethality 30%, probably Fights Back, +20% to Dodge)
Impale: 2.63 (5 AP, Fights Back I guess?)
So it turns out that the Shoggoth isn't the most deadly creature in the Handler's Guide. It might be the most dangerous, due to its Plastic and Resilient defensive properties that make it nigh-immune to all basically everything and the fact that it has 75 HP. But in terms of pure damage output, it's outclassed by a few other creatures. When looking at these numbers, one also has to remember that Agents are given a remarkable amount of chances to escape. Grapple, the deadliest attack by far, allows a single unopposed DEX test to avoid it (2.65 adjusted damage). Even Smash lets you dodge out of the way, which for an Agent with base Dodge, reduces the effective chance to hit to ~24% (~3.76 adjusted damage).
Looking at these numbers, one might wonder why a Shoggoth might opt to Impale rather than Grapple and Crush them, as Grapples both deal more damage and have a higher chance to hit. The same goes for Grapple and Crush vs Smash. For Impale, my proposition is that it's a more "long-ranged" attack, and while it may deal less damage, it doesn't grant the enemy a massive chance to avoid all of it. As for Smash, I'd just use that one flavorfully: whenever I felt like the Shoggoth should just be smashing stuff. Overall, I'd say the shoggoth has the best designed attacks in the entire Handler's Guide. Not only are the principles sound, but they're varied and allow Handlers to set up some interesting situations.
Slime of Tsathoggua
One Grasp: 10.84, 9.9 against Cover (Lethality 15%, Fights Back)
Two Grasps: 4.9 (Fights Back)
Three Grasps: 2.75 (Fights Back)
What's interesting here is that unlike the Dark Young, excuse me, Haedus Nigritia, the text implies that when attacking multiple targets, each attack is rolled for individually, as opposed to the Haedus Nigritia's attack which is rolled for once with multiple targets among whom damage dice may divided as it pleases. Additionally, with how the ramming rules function, I'm surprised that the Slimes of Tsathoggua didn't have an attack which was just them flinging themselves at the target. After all, they can reach speeds of up to 80 kph.
EDIT: The ramming rules have been changed! However, going at high speeds still lets you do ridiculous amounts of Lethality damage, so I still think the Slimes should have a ramming attack.
Spawn of Cthulhu
Ballistic Flight: 7.22, 6.6 against Cover? (Lethality 15%, 10 m kill radius)
Swipe: 7.44, 6.6 against Cover (10 AP, Lethality 20%, Fights Back I guess)
Consume: 5.78 (Lethality 40%, two unopposed chances to escape)
What I find interesting about the Spawn of Cthulhu is that it has a specific mechanic for determining whether it decides to munch one of the player characters: did they attack it with a 10% Lethality or greater weapon? Curiously, this is probably more for annoyance than for any perceived threat, as they'd only take 1 point of damage from the attack anyway. And if an attack was capable of hurting them, it'd pop them like the big slimy balloon that they are. The Swipe attack seems more intended for vehicles or other large supernatural creatures. Ballistic Flight isn't the most sophisticated attack in this book, but I like it purely for how it's simultaneously hilarious and horrifying.
Spawn of Yog-Sothoth
Unarmed: 1.8 (Fights Back, 1.25 followup auto damage ignoring Armor)
There's not much to say here. I think this monster is a decent template to build other monsters off of. I am curious as to why a "Greater Spawn" wasn't written up, to represent Wilber Whately's brother and other such creatures.
Spectral Polyp
Lash: 5.67, 5.5 against Cover (5 AP, Lethality 10%, can’t be Dodged)
Infection: 5.06 (Lethality 40%)
Wind: 3.3
Burst: 3.01 (Lethality 15%, 15m Kill Radius)
Like in the lore, Polyps are "like shoggoths, but not quite" at first glance. They have a similar array of varied powers and attacks, but in my opinion, it's more incoherent than the Shoggoth's writeup. Their Spectral Infection attack has a very cool description, but it just feels like too much on top of all their other abilities. Also, while I know it specifies living matter, but the flavor text describes it as so destructive that it's odd it can't be used on nonliving matter (thus allowing them to escape the catacombs they were sealed away in). The one thing I actively dislike about the Polyp is how its Lash Out ability is unable to be Dodged. I think that some monsters don't need to be written to be fought head on, but if that is the case, the players should always have the chance to dodge or run away. Yes, this only applies to people in "melee range" (all the attacks in the HG frustratingly never have ranges specified), but with a top speed of 25 kph, it will easily outpace most Agents.
Disc-Shaped Liquivore
Slice: 1.65 (Fights Back? 3 AP)
Ophidian Liquivore
Bite: 1.65 (Fights Back?)
Tumbleweed Liquivore
Spines: 1.38 (Fights Back? 3 AP)
I think all of these creatures are neat, but there's not quite enough distinction between them to justify having three different stat blocks.
Wendigo
Claw: 4.4 (Fights Back)
Bite: 3.6 (Fights Back, inflicts wendigoism)
Wendigoes fit in a similar "weight class" as Deep Ones, but are much more dangerous due to their extremely high attack skills. If you allow an Agent to tussle with a 20+ STR creature using the Fight Back rules, they stand a decent chance of protecting themselves against a fish person. But against the monstrous equivalent of 80% Unarmed, they're doomed. The interesting thing, however, is that the attack list implies that they don't know how to do anything more than just attack, attack, attack. Unlike the Deep Ones which could pull you into a grapple and roll around on the ground.
White Ape
Bash: 2.7 (Fights Back, followup 4.5 damage on hit)
Weapon: 3.3 (Fights Back)
There's not much to say here, though I think it's neat that they have no SAN loss listed. Even Yithians in human vessels had a SAN loss for when you realized their extra-temporal nature.
Winged Servitor
Claw: 2.8 (Fights Back)
Bite: 4.82 (Lethality 15%, Fights Back)
The Byakhee has an interesting situation where one of its attacks is just straight up better than the other. It has the same chance to hit, same sort of "range," but just deals more damage. Theoretically, you could say it would only bite living things, but I can totally see them tearing into a car or robot with their unearthly beaks. My take is that they only use this attack when they have an enemy Pinned, either by rolling their Claw attack and opting not to deal damage, or by critically succeeding with a Claw attack and choosing to only deal regular damage. I've run many combats with these creatures using this idea and it's worked out well.
Witch’s Familiar
Bite: 1 (Fights Back maybe, can inflict disease)
Zombie
Bite: 1.05 (inflicts followup 3.5 damage on hit)
Zombies are truly pathetic. They're a melee creature with low damage, low chances to hit, and they can't even use the main selling point of melee combat, defense rolls, to defend themselves. They're only dangerous in groups, which are annoying to run and work better as atmospheric pieces rather than a combat encounter. This is very strange to me, as when I think of zombies, I think of them as something you absolutely do not want to risk melee combat with. Here, you can just walk up to them with a pistol and stand a very good chance of blasting their brain out. You get a +20% from close range, and the -20% for the called shot is cancelled out by the +20% to all attacks against them for being slow. And even if you're using a light pistol, you will roll 3+ damage ~40% of the time. It's possible that the "attack at -20%" is intended as a net negative after applying a -40% for a headshot (from the AH optional rules) and a +20% from their sluggishness. If this is the case, I'm still going to criticize their writeup because that's really something that should've been caught in editing.
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